As I sat down to write my annual note on what will shape the workforce development industry in the upcoming year I took a minute to reflect on last year’s missive. For those of you who were not on last year’s distribution list I have included the note below. I addition to the summary, I also provided several specific public and private opportunities for clients. I have chosen not to include these but I am happy to discuss them privately. While the focus of my annual note is on the market, and for investors/suppliers, its assumptions have implications for CLO and other other learning leaders.
This year I will publish the updated summary here as part of my annual distribution. Company specifics will remain only for clients.
Honestly, I am surprised to say that I stand by the all of it. Normally this would worry me. I would assume that it meant that I hadn’t learned anything in the last year. In this case there is another reason for my continued support of the themes laid out twelve months ago. I over estimated the speed of change that the industry would undertake. The lack of enthusiasm from industry leaders to last year’s document was my first hint of this. Despite their chilly reception, the cover of the latest Training Magazine has reaffirmed my sense of direction. Even if my sense of pace is likely still exaggerated.
One of the investment opportunities I discussed in my note was both publicly traded and video oriented. My recommended sell/short for this company was due to an overriding belief that the model for “factual” video content needed a serious rethink. And I didn’t see anyone, public or private, pursuing new models. Before I distributed my note I actually reached out to one of this company’s large investor and shared my thoughts. They were not convinced. They are down 87% October to October. This is not meant as an “I told you so,” rather it is meant to say that the opportunity in video remains and I believe it will be a big player in 2023.
As I turn my attention to the upcoming year I am doubling down on the trends I highlighted last year. Last year my conclusion was that the opportunity to built the next generation provider in the learning space was there for the taking. I still believe this. But I no longer think that a new player is the big move. For next year I am thinking bigger. More at the end of the month.